Despite mounting costs and a deteriorating situation, Russia still has financial resources, including about $50 billion US in liquid assets in the National Wealth Fund
Ukraine's ability to inflict damage on the Russian economy significantly increased in 2025
Russian public opinion polling suggests ambivalence about the war; 55% expect it to end in 2026, but are reluctant to give back occupied territories
India has reportedly cut back on Russian oil purchases
Russia's "Friendship Club" has lost members (e.g., Assad in Syria, Maduro's Venezuela)
Elections in Europe are a significant risk. While the Czech Republic's election of Andre Babish (pro-Russian) was favorable for Moscow, elections in Romania and Moldova brought pro-European candidates to power
Hungary's Victor Orban, a pro-Russian voice and consistent blocking force in the EU, faces an election in April 2026, which could lead to Moscow losing a friendly veto in European circles
The campaign against Russia's Shadow Fleet (tankers and freighters evading sanctions) by the US, Italy, UK, and France is a growing geopolitical risk