Ukraine war thread

[Dr Strangelove]

Two things can be true at the same time:

Russia is failing to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine, and Russia is significantly more dangerous to Europe today than it was before 2022.

Ukraine's ability to hold off Russian forces has lulled Europeans into a false sense of security.

Underestimating Russia because of its stumbles in Ukraine is a critical mistake. Russia is diminished in long-term economic potential, but its military is far more experienced, dangerous, and adapted to modern warfare than it was four and a half years ago.

Moscow operates a war economy that produces more ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, glide bombs, strike drones, and interceptors than all EU countries combined. In unmanned warfare, Russia maintains a significant lead in technology, quantity, and trained personnel. Its military even has an unmanned systems branch.

It is dangerous to assume European militaries can replicate Ukraine's resilience. Ukraine benefited from eight years of war preparation in the Donbas, deep Soviet equipment reserves, and a large population forced to innovate rapidly under fire. Most European nations lack the stockpiles, reserves, population size, and operational preparations required for modern attritional combat.

Without major US support, European forces would struggle to reinforce the Baltics through the heavily targeted Suwalki Gap, Baltic Sea, and skies.

If Russia launches a new mobilization or if the fighting in Ukraine freezes at some point in the future, a rearmed Russia will present an even greater threat to the rest of the continent. Europe cannot rely on wishful thinking.

European countries need to urgently build out stockpiles of interceptors, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and long-range strike drones while learning directly from Ukrainian combat experience. The more we work with Ukraine the better.

Good post linked to this by @kriegsforscherD

[Dr Strangelove]

Russia asked India for emergency gasoline shipments — India delivered. Then Moscow refused to pay the price: 150,000 rubles per ton, demanding the “domestic” rate instead, roughly one‑third.

India’s response was simple: Do not unload the cargo.

So the tankers sit there, full and locked, a floating reminder that Russia’s fuel system is cracking under its own contradictions — desperate for imports, unwilling to pay, and now stuck in a standoff of its own making.

[Dr Strangelove]

The largest Wildberries logistics hub in all of Russia has been finally destroyed.
Koledino, Moscow.

Wildberries appears to have made a conscious choice not to empty this warehouse despite knowing Ukraine will destroy it like all others.
Expect $1.5+ billion in damages.

Wildberries will absolutely go bankrupt, taking down tens of thousands of Russian small businesses with it.
Total damage is probably approaching $20 billion. Russian economy is the size of Texas.
Could also lead to collapse of Russian banks, but probably less likely short-term.

[Dr Strangelove]

Major Drone Attacks:

Ukraine launched a massive drone strike hitting two major Wildberries distribution warehouses in the Moscow region, including the largest one in Koladino (0:04-0:46, 3:31).
These strikes caused massive economic disruption, with estimates suggesting over $1 billion in damages and the loss of jobs for over 118,000 Russians (2:57, 8:44).
Military and Industrial Targets:

Ukraine successfully struck a rocket production site in Samara and a solid rocket fuel production facility in Rostov, targeting infrastructure critical to Russia's military-industrial complex (9:36, 11:56, 13:09).
The video also highlights the Azov brigade's continued destruction of Russian fuel storage and supply lines (14:41-15:18).
Regional Impact and Aid:

Crimea continues to face severe shortages of electricity, fuel, and supplies, leading to growing domestic frustration (16:50, 19:05).
Ukraine is working on developing its own ballistic missile systems, with Defense Minister Fedorov suggesting they could be operational by the end of the year (23:04-23:24).
Switzerland provided financial aid to help restore a monastery damaged in a Russian attack (30:35).
Global Dynamics:

The video discusses the deepening cooperation between Russia and North Korea, including the reported deployment of North Korean soldiers to support the Russian war effort (25:04-25:47).
Jake Broe expresses strong criticism of Donald Trump's foreign policy stance toward South Korea and his rhetoric regarding Kim Jong-un (26:05-29:20).

[Dr Strangelove]

Economic Strain: The video centers on the speech of Andre Klepach, a chief economist at a state-run Russian bank, who warned that Russia is losing the economic and technological competition in this war of attrition (0:00 - 0:56). He noted that Ukraine's economy, supported by international aid, is surviving despite the conflict, and that the financial gap between the two nations' budgets has significantly narrowed since 2021 (1:25 - 3:30).
Infrastructure Targeting: The narrator describes how Ukrainian military operations, such as those by the Azov brigade, are systematically targeting fuel storage and refineries to degrade Russian logistics (6:10 - 7:00). These strikes are identified as a major barrier to Russia's economic growth, as they limit the country's ability to refine and export oil (7:44 - 9:06).
Social and Stability Concerns: Commentators are increasingly referencing the risk of a "perfect storm" in the autumn of this year, where fuel crises, budget deficits, and potential mobilization could trigger social instability or unrest within Russia (9:33 - 10:24).
Conclusion: The video concludes by emphasizing that while a total economic collapse might not be immediate, the cumulative impact of these factors is creating a long-term, unsustainable crisis for the Kremlin (10:48 - 11:34).

[Dr Strangelove]

[Dr Strangelove]

After dutifully serving years as propagandist for the Russian government, Seagal's work for Putin will now end where the story always ends.

After selling his $1.3 million Moscow home, the prostitute-loving, washed-up and cash-strapped 1990's TV star will now have all his assets stolen by the Russians.


HAHAHAHAHAH GOOD!

[Dr Strangelove]

The Catalyst: A series of undersea infrastructure sabotage incidents in the Baltic—involving mysterious vessels and damaged fiber optic cables—highlighted gaps in Sweden's existing intelligence framework (0:00, 8:09).
The Shift: Joining NATO in 2024 necessitated a move away from a fragmented system (Must, SAPO, and FRA) toward a unified, civilian foreign intelligence service modeled after Britain's MI6 (2:58, 4:12, 6:18).
The Strategy: The new service, expected to start operations in January 2027, is designed to provide better coordinated, proactive intelligence to counter hybrid warfare and shadow operations (3:43, 11:53).
The Challenges: The agency is being built with resources repurposed from the existing military budget, and the establishment of true tradecraft and international liaison networks is a complex, multi-year endeavor (4:56, 12:07, 13:00).


This is a seismic shift that is never going back.

[Dr Strangelove]

Rocket Plant Strike: Ukraine recently hit the Progress rocket space center in Samara, damaging critical infrastructure used for Soyuz rocket assembly and satellite production (0:05 - 1:19).
Energy Crisis: Drone strikes on refineries have significantly reduced Russia's oil production capacity, leading to widespread gasoline shortages and lines at stations across Russia (5:58 - 7:38). Putin has publicly acknowledged the damage to industrial facilities (1:42 - 2:36).
Logistics and Supply Chain: Ukraine continues to target Russian food processing plants and distribution centers, mirroring Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure (2:38 - 5:17). Commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov has been effectively halted by Ukrainian drone operations (13:51 - 14:43).
Future Capabilities: Ukraine is preparing to field new ballistic missiles, with the Firepoint 7 expected in September and the longer-range Firepoint 9 (capable of reaching Moscow) expected by Christmas (17:40 - 18:35).
Political and Societal Shifts:

Defense Ministry Transition: Zelenskyy has formally appointed Kamar as the new defense minister, replacing Fedorov (18:35 - 19:14).
Election Controversy: The ousted minister Fedorov sparked significant debate by calling for national elections during wartime. Most Ukrainian voices cited in the video, including activists and military personnel, argue that elections are currently dangerous, divisive, and logistically impossible (19:21 - 27:06).

[Dr Strangelove]

Two F-16AM Fighting Falcons with the Romanian Air Force were scrambled early Thursday to investigate an unidentified naval surface drone spotted near the Neptun Deep Project, a major European offshore natural gas field off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea.

On approach, the drone - believed to be of Russian origin - was determined to be an active threat, with one of the F-16s using its M61A1 Vulcan Six-Barrel Gatling Gun to target and destroy the explosive-laden surface drone, roughly 80NM east of the Romanian Black Sea coastal city of Constanța.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan blamed the incident on Russia, stating in a post online: “I strongly condemn the intensification of these types of irresponsible incidents on the part of the Russian Federation.” While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described it as part of an “escalating campaign of threats” against the European Union.